MVSKOKE RESERVATION – Prediction markets and sports betting are emerging as a point of division among Tribal leaders in Indian Country. Four Tribes, including Alabama-Quassarte Tribal Town, Greenville Rancheria, Kletsel Dehe Wintun Nation, and Alturas Indian Rancheria, are launching their own prediction market applications through Kalshi. Meanwhile, the Muscogee (Creek) Nation and other Tribal opponents of prediction market betting have joined an amicus brief challenging Kalshi, arguing that prediction markets violate the complex legal framework governing gaming in Indian Country.
Trading on prediction markets is currently legal and federally regulated in all fifty states and the District of Columbia. State laws vary, however, and several states, such as Utah, have taken court action to affirm their bans on gambling, including prediction markets.
Certain market categories, such as sports prediction markets, have been contested in some states because of their similarity to state-regulated sports betting markets. Currently, prediction markets are legal in 39 states and the District of Columbia.
As of March 4, sports betting is not legal in Oklahoma when the Oklahoma State Legislature failed to pass House Bill 1047, a bill that would have legalized sports betting. In a press conference delivered on Wednesday, February 26, 2025, Governor Kevin Stitt said that he would veto any bill legalizing sports betting out of fear of giving a “monopoly to the Tribes.”
145 tribes, including MCN, joined an amicus brief in case No. 26-299, supporting Flaherty and Davenport vs. KalshiEX LLC on Thursday, Oct. 8. In this case, New Jersey state officials are challenging Kalshi’s sports contracts under the state’s gambling laws and college sports betting restrictions. It is currently at the Supreme Court.
The amicus brief argues that prediction market companies pose a threat to Indian self-governance and self-sufficiency. The National Football League (NFL) also filed an amicus brief. The NFL argues prediction markets threaten the integrity of sports and that states should regulate sports gambling.
Proponents of prediction markets argue that they are not a form of gambling because customers buy “event contracts,” also called swaps. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, event contracts are financial contracts that derive their value from an underlying commodity.
In this case, the commodity is the outcome of an event. Traders buy a “yes” or “no” position on the outcome of the event. Outcome pricing is based on the market’s expectation of the outcome. The question the case presents is whether these event-outcome commodities constitute a form of gambling.
According to the Indian Bureau of Indian Affairs website, AQTT is currently in a Tribal leadership dispute between Wilson Yargee and Sam Marshall. AQTT’s prediction market business app is called Pokketrades. In a release published by Kalshi, Wilson Yargee said the new prediction-market venture will benefit the Tribal citizens of Alabama Quassarte.
“Geography has kept many tribes from sharing in the prosperity that gaming created,” Yargee said. “Prediction markets offer an opportunity to reach beyond those limits and build revenue for our people. We will respect every other tribe’s authority on its land and we expect the same respect for our authority to make this decision.”
MCN Ambassador Jonodev Chaudhuri appeared on Live Wire on Tuesday, Oct. 14, to discuss how the prediction market presents a threat to gaming within the MCN. According to Chaudhuri, it is his role as ambassador to the Nation to speak out because prediction markets illegally encroach on the Nation’s gaming territory.
“Whenever there’s a threat to the Indian Gaming industry, it’s also a threat to our gaming operations,” Chaudhuri said. “The prediction market threat is real, and it is an example of a threat that’s national but also local. If these event contracts, as they’re framed, are allowed to effectively provide sports betting without any regulation in our neck of the woods, that results in unregulated gaming being conducted in our territory.”
In light of the Tribes that have launched their own prediction-market business apps, Chaudhuri said companies like Kalshi are trying to build their case before the Supreme Court. He said prediction market companies are trying to demonstrate that by collaborating with Tribes, prediction markets do not infringe on Tribal sovereignty.
“The purpose of all of this is for Kalshi to take the edge off the pressure that’s on them with the case working its way up to the Supreme Court and saying, ‘listen, the Tribes don’t see this as gaming, even the Tribes are partnering with us. Congress you should stay your hand; courts, you should stay your hand, and let us do business with the Tribes.’ They’re trying to create in this case that this isn’t gaming,” Chaudhuri said.
Chaudhuri said he has engaged in conversations with the Coalition of Large Tribes and the National Congress of American Indians about issues related to prediction markets. He firmly stated that the markets do not comply with the framework of Indian Gaming laws and that event contracts should not be excluded from regulation. Chaudhuri said this affects social programs offered by the Nation.
“It potentially siphons off revenue that is rightfully regulated under a very complex framework of laws. It siphons off revenue that otherwise should be going to important programs and services for our citizens,” Chaudhuri said.
The National Indian Gaming Association made statements on these markets at the Global Gaming Expo during a workshop on Monday, Sept. 28. IGA Chairman David Bean explained that the association views prediction markets as unlawful and will fight to protect Tribal gaming rights. Bean believes the prediction markets are not exempt from established state and Tribal laws.
“Prediction markets will never be too big or financially successful to ignore state and Tribal sovereignty, engage in unfair competition, or present products that are harmful to underage and adult consumers,” Bean said.
Chaudhuri said he hopes the Supreme Court will deem these activities unlawful. Otherwise, the Nation will likely have to rely on Congress to pass laws regulating prediction markets.
